The IEA has warned against a fossil fuel recovery after the outbreak, and the UN Secretary-General has called on all countries to get rid of the “pro-coal”. But the productivity of climate change is increasing.
Demand, price and production of coal have risen sharply in the last year. Coal prices have tripled in the past year on a tonne of Australian Newcastle, the scale for large areas of the Asian market.
The Newcastle Index (NEWC) rose to $ 170 a tonne from $ 46 in September last year.
This is the highest price of coal in ten years.
In parallel, oil and gas prices have risen sharply in the past week, although oil prices have fallen in recent weeks. For the gas market, there were record prices this summer.
China’s rapid growth raises prices
– Probably the reason for the increase in the price of coal is that electricity consumption is growing strongly in China. This is absolutely huge, so far this year alone, the growth of thermal power generation is equivalent to all of Germany’s electricity consumption in a year, says Chief Analyst Siegjorn Zeland. Storm Nena (Nordic energy analysis).
He points out that more than half of power generation is coal electricity.
– In general, the market for commodities and board prices will rise sharply, and coal will be part of that picture, Seland says.
The chief analyst did not anticipate a fall in coal prices in the future.
– There is no reason to expect it. I think the price hike will continue further. There is a ceiling, but the price of coal has been very high in the past, so it will no doubt rise a little more, says Zeland.
Historical increase in CO2 emissions
Already in April this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) joined A statement It said the world is likely to see the largest annual increase in CO2 emissions worldwide by 2021.
The increase in demand for coal in power generation was pointed out as a decisive impetus.
The IEA’s general manager, Fatih Birol, at the same time came out with a clear warning to world economies:
– The economic recovery after the Govt crisis is currently climate-stable, but the payroll report said.
Since then, the demand for coal has increased and there is little sign of declining production.
Waiting for bottles of coal stocks
The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) is waiting Further increase in coal production, And believes that demand is too high for stocks to fall significantly.
Production for 2021 is expected to increase by 13 percent compared to the previous year.
The UN Climate Panel concludes that there is already a bad climate benefit in the background of a dramatic climate report, where by 2030 we may already experience 1.5 degrees.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has previously stated: “The most important step in achieving the 1.5 degree target is to remove coal from the power sector», And encouraged all countries to abandon planned coal projects.
It is important that we do not invest too much in fossil energy
– The rise in coal is not unexpected, but it is certainly worrying, says Dina Saltvet, Nordia’s chief analyst for sustainable finance.
He believes it is important now to take action to counter growth.
– We need to help where there is the greatest need and where there is the most important, says Saltvet.
He points out that emerging economies, especially China and India, are now sharply increasing coal production for a quick recovery in the economy. Renewable alternatives are not yet competitive here, Saltwood insists.
Where it is not competitive, he believes we should bring support packages to select countries for renewables.
The economist points out that apart from the fact that green support packages, higher CO2 prices and investments in renewable energy, renewable energy should be available to everyone, rather than fossil energy.
Saltwood believes it is important to avoid investing in new coal power plants because it has locked economies to coal for decades.
When it comes to further development, one thing is for sure.
– “As long as we open economies, energy demand will continue to rise,” he said.