January 17, 2022

The Pulse

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Danger of a complete collapse in Afghanistan – Viji

Progress: Taliban militants with a vehicle in the center of the city of Kunduz on Monday this week. Photo: Abdullah Sahil / AP

As the Afghan government army drops its weapons, the Taliban continue to occupy new cities. The military expert explains that the risk of a total collapse is imminent.


The province fell after the province, but until last week, the Taliban’s advance was primarily aimed at the countryside, while staying away from the cities.

Then came a rapid change: nine provincial capitals were captured, and four were besieged and about to fall. The Taliban now control 60 percent of Afghanistan.

In the cities there The Taliban are rapidly gaining ground in major cities Kunduz and Kandahar. On Wednesday night, news came that the capital of Faizabad, the capital of the northern Afghan province of Patax, was also under Taliban control.

Masar-i-Sharif, where the Norwegian Armed Forces have long had a strong military presence, is one of the largest cities to fall at any time.

– The Taliban’s victories went faster than expected. Naval Captain Thomas Slenswick, head of strategy and theory at the Norwegian Defense College, explains that this strengthens the psychological factor in war and increases the risk of a joint collapse between government forces.

Last: The Taliban can encircle the Afghan capital, Kabul, in 30 days and control the city within 90 days. The U.S. military official told Reuters, citing an intelligence report.

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Kunduz: Taliban militants at a sentry base in Kunduz this week. Photo: Abdullah Sahil / AP

Discipline fails

Slenswick points out that the Taliban should no longer be seen as a guerrilla force, but as an ordinary army using guerrilla warfare methods.

– The Afghan army is on paper strong enough to defend itself against the Taliban. But it has become accustomed to a security network in the presence of NATO, which has created a framework for the fight against the Taliban, Slenswick explains.

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– The Taliban, for its part, has a very solid structure and more fighters. They have determination and motivation on their side. It will not help the government troops to have better equipment and if the soldiers do not want to fight, he continues.

Slenswick compares it to the Iraqi government army that fled Mosul when IS militants captured the city in 2014. Now something similar is happening in some parts of Afghanistan.

The IS retreat is as follows: Viji into the war for Mosul

The military expert believes the Taliban has been able to divide its strategy for a long time Withdrawal of the United States, Has long been known.

– The Taliban have seized control of northern Afghanistan since the last time they were in power. The big question now is whether there is a vortex towards total collapse or in some areas it ensures an effective and lasting resistance, Slenswick says.

Slenswick warns against the shocking effect of rapid progress, which makes government soldiers fear for the future of their families and lose confidence in victory. The same thing was pointed out by Christian Berg Harbwigen, a PRIO researcher and expert in Afghanistan.

– The attack was a shock. Harbwigan says they know the Taliban will take over new areas, but that it will happen very quickly, targeting big and major cities like that, and they do not think so.

Balance: A soldier belonging to the government forces in Herat last week fought a fierce battle against the Taliban. Photo: Jalil Resai / EPA

Free rent is guaranteed

The vast majority of the government army is simply concentrated and has laid down its arms in exchange for the promise of free rent, he points out. But there are also high-motivation units, not among the Special Forces, Harbwigen explains.

Afghan and US warplanes tried to defend the provincial capitals, and bombed densely populated areas, killing many civilians.

– It will be important if the government continues to provide air support to the military. This will make the Taliban’s advance militarily more difficult. But at the same time, more Afghan civilians are dying, which will increase support for the Taliban, Harbwigan points out.

Taliban The capital, Kabul, was rocked by two violent attacks last week, Terrorist bombs, killings and soldiers who fought to the death were in the tools.

President Ashraf Ghani had to turn into local warriors for support in several cities. But these militants have been accused of abusing local people, Describes foreign policy.

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Ghani flew from Kabul on Wednesday to Mazar-e-Sharif in support of government forces there.

Military Soldier: A militant soldier fighting for a local warrior against the Taliban, in a photo from Herat last week. Photo: Jalil Resai / EPA

Warning from NATO

NATO is deeply concerned about the Taliban’s progress in Afghanistan and describes the situation in the country as “difficult and desirable,” the NDP report said.

A NATO official said: “We share the Security Council’s deep concern over the escalation of violence, including reports of civilian attacks and other serious human rights abuses by the Taliban.

– The increasing speed of the Taliban’s military offensive is of great concern. The US State Department said in a statement that the only solution to the war was peace.

PS: The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (OCHA) says the Taliban’s advance and government airstrikes have forced at least 244,000 Afghans to flee their homes since May.